Most of what is said about capital growth in Thailand is a projection, and the market gives it little support. Prices are broadly stable in Bangkok and firmer on Phuket's west coast, and nothing tracks resale prices of the homes foreign buyers own. If you want growth in your numbers, treat it as an assumption, set it at zero first, and then decide what would have to be true for it to be higher.
The Thai price indices, and what each measures
Three kinds of price figure circulate, and they measure different things.
| Figure | What it measures | Coverage | What it misses |
|---|---|---|---|
| The official residential price index | Bank appraisals on new mortgage loans, adjusted for size, location and age | Nationwide since 2023; the condominium series covers Bangkok and its vicinities only | Cash purchases, which is most foreign buying, and resort condominiums |
| New condominium price indices | Prices of new projects on sale | Greater Bangkok | Resale prices; resort markets |
| Average prices per sqm | Average asking or selling prices per sqm | Bangkok, Phuket, Pattaya and others | Price changes over time on a like-for-like basis |
The official index has run since 2004. It uses the appraisal price recorded on mortgage loans, because that data arrives monthly and in volume, and an appraisal does not always match the price actually paid. Condominiums are concentrated in Bangkok and its vicinities, so that is the only area with a condominium series. Phuket is in the southern regional index for detached houses and townhouses.
The gap that matters most to a foreign buyer is resale. A condominium bought freehold by a foreigner, in cash, in Phuket or Pattaya, is outside every one of these series.
Bangkok: prices broadly flat, stock heavy
The index of new condominium prices in Greater Bangkok stood at 160.4 in the first quarter of 2025, up 3.4% on a year earlier. Bangkok proper was at 163.3, up 3.6%. These are prices of new projects, so they also reflect what developers chose to launch.
In the first quarter of 2026 prices held rather than rose. The average asking price in the central business district slipped slightly on the quarter to about THB 236,800 per sqm. The city fringe eased to about THB 123,500, and the suburbs edged up to about THB 71,200. Fragile purchasing power, high household debt and the volume of unsold stock are holding prices back, and developers are keeping prices steady to clear inventory.
The stock is the point. Greater Bangkok held 202,414 unsold homes in the second quarter of 2026, down 10.2% on a year earlier, with condominiums taking about 39 months to sell at the current pace. Developers are building less: condominium construction permits fell 71.3% in the first quarter of 2026. Falling new supply helps existing owners over time, but only once the unsold units are absorbed.
Some locations move faster than the average. In the second quarter of 2026 new condominium sales in the Sukhumvit area rose 138.6% on a year earlier, with about 16 months of stock. See our pages on Sukhumvit and the Bangkok condominium market.
Phuket: scarce land on the west coast
Phuket has no official price index, so the useful figures are price levels rather than changes. In 2025 condominium selling prices generally ran from THB 125,000 to THB 160,000 per sqm, and the most sought-after locations were well above that: about THB 283,975 per sqm in Bang Tao, THB 197,000 in Layan and THB 182,375 in Kamala.
Limited beachfront land on the west coast has driven land values up over the long term, and we expect it to keep supporting prices of both condominiums and villas there. Competition between off-plan projects will sharpen after three to four years of heavy launches, and projects in secondary locations will sell more slowly.
The volumes support both points. Villa sales rose 12.9% in 2025 to 631 units, while condominium sales fell 24.8% to 4,455 units. New condominium launches fell 51.7% to 5,073 units. See the Phuket property market in 2026.
Asking prices are not resale values
A developer's price list tells you what a new unit costs today. It does not tell you what a buyer will pay for the same unit as a resale in five years. Three things open the gap.
- The buyer pool. Second-hand homes made up 62% of all transfers in Thailand in the fourth quarter of 2025. A resale competes with those, and with any unsold units the developer still has in the same building.
- Average values are moving down. Foreigners took 14,899 condominium transfers in 2025, up 2.2%, but their value fell 10.7% to THB 60.9 billion: foreigners bought more units at lower average prices.
- The costs of selling. An individual who sells within five years pays specific business tax of 3.3% of the higher of price or appraised value, as well as withholding tax and usually a share of the transfer fee. See selling property and repatriating funds.
What supports value for a foreign owner
No list guarantees growth, but these are the factors that hold value.
- Scarcity of the location. Beachfront land on Phuket's west coast and transit-served sites in central Bangkok cannot be replicated, and they carry the highest prices per sqm.
- The supply pipeline. Falling permits and launches reduce future competition. Ask what else is approved within a kilometre.
- Tenure. A freehold condominium keeps its term; a leasehold villa's remaining lease shortens every year. See freehold vs leasehold.
- Rental demand. A unit that lets well has buyers among investors as well as owner-occupiers. See rental yields in Thailand.
- Your currency. A rise in the baht against your currency raises the value of a Thai home in your terms, and a fall reduces it, whatever happens to prices in baht. See paying for off-plan property from abroad.
How to test growth in your own figures
Set growth at zero and see whether the purchase still makes sense on use and rent alone. Then try a fall. Only then try the figure in the brochure, and ask what it rests on.
The home and its plan
Your currency
Your view of value
Paid before handover
THB 1,950,000
50% of the price, before the keys. The balance of THB 1,950,000 falls due at handover, in month 2.
- On signing the contract: Contract30% of the price
- THB 1,170,000
- During construction: Down payment20% of the price
- THB 780,000
- On handover: Final payment50% of the price
- THB 1,950,000
- Total
- THB 3,900,000
Value at handover, your assumption
THB 3,900,000
At zero change, the price you agreed.
Against the price
THB 0
On paper only, before the costs of buying and selling.
In short
You commit THB 3,900,000 across 3 payments: 50% before handover and 50% at it.
The schedule is the one published for BRISA Patong by Sansiri, completion Q3 2028. The reservation agreement governs; check it before you pay. Converted at the reference rates of 12 November 2026 (European Central Bank reference rates via frankfurter.dev); your bank’s rate and margin will differ. The currency and value figures are your assumptions, not forecasts: we do not predict prices or exchange rates. Send each payment from abroad in foreign currency and keep the bank’s evidence (a Foreign Exchange Transaction Form from USD 50,000, a credit advice below it) to register a freehold condominium and, later, to send sale proceeds home.
Sources for these figures
Talk it through
An adviser can confirm the current schedule and price list, and set the payment dates against your transfers home.
Send me this payment plan
Your schedule by email, payment by payment, with an adviser to check it against the developer's current terms.
Email me the plan
The planner starts at zero growth for a reason: the rate is yours to choose, and the market today does not justify a default above it. Put your own figure in, then compare the result with the costs of buying and selling.
Questions to ask before you rely on a growth figure
- What index or transactions is the figure based on, and are they new launch prices or resales?
- How many units in this building, and in the area, are still unsold?
- What did comparable resale units in the building, if any, actually sell for?
- What are the costs to sell if you exit within five years?
- What does the figure look like in your own currency, at a rate you think plausible?
