# Capital growth in Thai property: what prices are really doing

Source: https://www.thailandpropertyinvestor.com/guides/capital-growth-in-thai-property
Updated: 2026-11-14
Publisher: Thailand Property Investor (Omnia Capital Group)

## The short answer

Thai prices are stable, not rising fast. New condominium prices in Greater Bangkok rose 3.4% in the year to the first quarter of 2025, and Bangkok asking prices were largely flat in early 2026, with about 39 months of unsold condominiums on the market. Phuket's west coast is firmer, because beachfront land there is scarce. No index tracks resale prices of foreign-owned resort homes, so treat any growth figure as an assumption.

## Key points

- Thailand's official house price index is built from bank appraisals on mortgage loans, and its condominium series covers only Bangkok and its vicinities.
- The index of new condominium prices in Greater Bangkok stood at 160.4 in the first quarter of 2025, up 3.4% on a year earlier.
- The average asking price in Bangkok's central business district was about THB 236,800 per sqm in the first quarter of 2026, slightly down on the quarter.
- Greater Bangkok held 202,414 unsold homes in the second quarter of 2026, about 39 months of condominium sales at the current pace.
- On Phuket, condominiums in Bang Tao averaged about THB 283,975 per sqm in 2025, and scarce west-coast land should keep supporting values there.
- Growth is the least certain number in any property case. Model it at zero and below before you rely on it.

Most of what is said about capital growth in Thailand is a projection, and the market gives it little support. Prices are broadly stable in Bangkok and firmer on Phuket's west coast, and nothing tracks resale prices of the homes foreign buyers own. If you want growth in your numbers, treat it as an assumption, set it at zero first, and then decide what would have to be true for it to be higher.

## The Thai price indices, and what each measures

Three kinds of price figure circulate, and they measure different things.

| Figure | What it measures | Coverage | What it misses |
|---|---|---|---|
| The official residential price index | Bank appraisals on new mortgage loans, adjusted for size, location and age | Nationwide since 2023; the condominium series covers Bangkok and its vicinities only | Cash purchases, which is most foreign buying, and resort condominiums |
| New condominium price indices | Prices of new projects on sale | Greater Bangkok | Resale prices; resort markets |
| Average prices per sqm | Average asking or selling prices per sqm | Bangkok, Phuket, Pattaya and others | Price changes over time on a like-for-like basis |

The official index has run since 2004. It uses the appraisal price recorded on mortgage loans, because that data arrives monthly and in volume, and an appraisal does not always match the price actually paid. Condominiums are concentrated in Bangkok and its vicinities, so that is the only area with a condominium series. Phuket is in the southern regional index for detached houses and townhouses.

The gap that matters most to a foreign buyer is resale. A condominium bought freehold by a foreigner, in cash, in Phuket or Pattaya, is outside every one of these series.

## Bangkok: prices broadly flat, stock heavy

The index of new condominium prices in Greater Bangkok stood at 160.4 in the first quarter of 2025, up 3.4% on a year earlier. Bangkok proper was at 163.3, up 3.6%. These are prices of new projects, so they also reflect what developers chose to launch.

In the first quarter of 2026 prices held rather than rose. The average asking price in the central business district slipped slightly on the quarter to about THB 236,800 per sqm. The city fringe eased to about THB 123,500, and the suburbs edged up to about THB 71,200. Fragile purchasing power, high household debt and the volume of unsold stock are holding prices back, and developers are keeping prices steady to clear inventory.

The stock is the point. Greater Bangkok held 202,414 unsold homes in the second quarter of 2026, down 10.2% on a year earlier, with condominiums taking about 39 months to sell at the current pace. Developers are building less: condominium construction permits fell 71.3% in the first quarter of 2026. Falling new supply helps existing owners over time, but only once the unsold units are absorbed.

Some locations move faster than the average. In the second quarter of 2026 new condominium sales in the Sukhumvit area rose 138.6% on a year earlier, with about 16 months of stock. See our pages on [Sukhumvit](https://www.thailandpropertyinvestor.com/areas/bangkok/sukhumvit) and the [Bangkok condominium market](https://www.thailandpropertyinvestor.com/journal/bangkok-condominium-market-2026).

## Phuket: scarce land on the west coast

Phuket has no official price index, so the useful figures are price levels rather than changes. In 2025 condominium selling prices generally ran from THB 125,000 to THB 160,000 per sqm, and the most sought-after locations were well above that: about THB 283,975 per sqm in [Bang Tao](https://www.thailandpropertyinvestor.com/areas/phuket/bang-tao), THB 197,000 in [Layan](https://www.thailandpropertyinvestor.com/areas/phuket/layan) and THB 182,375 in [Kamala](https://www.thailandpropertyinvestor.com/areas/phuket/kamala).

Limited beachfront land on the west coast has driven land values up over the long term, and we expect it to keep supporting prices of both condominiums and villas there. Competition between off-plan projects will sharpen after three to four years of heavy launches, and projects in secondary locations will sell more slowly.

The volumes support both points. Villa sales rose 12.9% in 2025 to 631 units, while condominium sales fell 24.8% to 4,455 units. New condominium launches fell 51.7% to 5,073 units. See the [Phuket property market in 2026](https://www.thailandpropertyinvestor.com/journal/phuket-property-market-2026).

## Asking prices are not resale values

A developer's price list tells you what a new unit costs today. It does not tell you what a buyer will pay for the same unit as a resale in five years. Three things open the gap.

- **The buyer pool.** Second-hand homes made up 62% of all transfers in Thailand in the fourth quarter of 2025. A resale competes with those, and with any unsold units the developer still has in the same building.
- **Average values are moving down.** Foreigners took 14,899 condominium transfers in 2025, up 2.2%, but their value fell 10.7% to THB 60.9 billion: foreigners bought more units at lower average prices.
- **The costs of selling.** An individual who sells within five years pays specific business tax of 3.3% of the higher of price or appraised value, as well as withholding tax and usually a share of the transfer fee. See [selling property and repatriating funds](https://www.thailandpropertyinvestor.com/guides/selling-property-and-repatriating-funds).

## What supports value for a foreign owner

No list guarantees growth, but these are the factors that hold value.

1. **Scarcity of the location.** Beachfront land on Phuket's west coast and transit-served sites in central Bangkok cannot be replicated, and they carry the highest prices per sqm.
2. **The supply pipeline.** Falling permits and launches reduce future competition. Ask what else is approved within a kilometre.
3. **Tenure.** A freehold condominium keeps its term; a leasehold villa's remaining lease shortens every year. See [freehold vs leasehold](https://www.thailandpropertyinvestor.com/guides/freehold-vs-leasehold).
4. **Rental demand.** A unit that lets well has buyers among investors as well as owner-occupiers. See [rental yields in Thailand](https://www.thailandpropertyinvestor.com/guides/rental-yields-in-thailand).
5. **Your currency.** A rise in the baht against your currency raises the value of a Thai home in your terms, and a fall reduces it, whatever happens to prices in baht. See [paying for off-plan property from abroad](https://www.thailandpropertyinvestor.com/guides/off-plan-payment-plans-and-currency).

## How to test growth in your own figures

Set growth at zero and see whether the purchase still makes sense on use and rent alone. Then try a fall. Only then try the figure in the brochure, and ask what it rests on.


The planner starts at zero growth for a reason: the rate is yours to choose, and the market today does not justify a default above it. Put your own figure in, then compare the result with the costs of buying and selling.

## Questions to ask before you rely on a growth figure

- What index or transactions is the figure based on, and are they new launch prices or resales?
- How many units in this building, and in the area, are still unsold?
- What did comparable resale units in the building, if any, actually sell for?
- What are the costs to sell if you exit within five years?
- What does the figure look like in your own currency, at a rate you think plausible?

## Questions

### Do Thai property prices go up?

Over long periods many have, but recent movement is small. New condominium prices in Greater Bangkok rose 3.4% in the year to early 2025, and Bangkok condominium prices were largely stable in early 2026. Results differ widely by building, location and the price paid.

### Which part of Thailand has the strongest capital growth?

No official index measures resale prices of foreign-owned resort homes, so nobody can answer that with certainty. Our view is Phuket's west coast, where beachfront land is scarce and prices per sqm in Bang Tao and Layan are the island's highest. Scarcity supports values; it does not promise them.

### Is the official house price index useful for a foreign buyer?

As a guide to the broad market, yes. It is built from bank appraisals on mortgage loans, which most foreign buyers do not take, and its condominium series covers only Bangkok and its vicinities. Phuket appears in the southern index for houses and townhouses, not condominiums.

### Should I buy off-plan for capital growth?

Off-plan prices are set by the developer, and nobody publishes the gap between the launch price and what a buyer will pay for a finished resale unit. With heavy unsold stock in Bangkok and many recent launches on Phuket, a resale at handover may compete with the developer's own remaining units. Plan to hold.

### How much do I need to sell for to break even?

Enough to cover your buying costs and the seller's costs at the Land Office. A seller who has held for under five years pays specific business tax of 3.3% of the higher of price or appraised value, plus withholding tax. Our guide to selling sets out the calculation.

## Sources

- [Bank of Thailand, the development of the residential property price index (International Conference on Real Estate Statistics 2026)](https://cures.hias.hit-u.ac.jp/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/BOT_RPPI_Final.pdf)
- [Bangkok Post, condo price index up 3.4% (REIC, first quarter 2025), 6 June 2025](https://bangkokpost-9xil5h.cdn.byteark.com/financing-and-advice/3043021/bangkok-condo-price-index-up-3-4)
- [Knight Frank Thailand, Bangkok condominium market Q1 2026](https://content.knightfrank.com/research/2265/documents/en/bangkok-condominium-market-q1-2026-12909.pdf)
- [Knight Frank Thailand, Phuket villa and condominium market, year-end 2025](https://content.knightfrank.com/research/2838/documents/en/phuket-villa-condominium-market-year-end-2025-12944.pdf)
- [The Nation, REIC second quarter 2026 supply, sales and months to clear, 23 September 2026](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/property/40071360)
- [The Nation, REIC fourth quarter and full-year 2025 transfers, new and second-hand, 26 February 2026](https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/business/property/40063000)
- [The Nation, REIC first quarter 2026 permits and transfers, 20 June 2026](https://www.nationthailand.com/business/property/40067650)